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Может ли Порошенко остаться президентом?


#Донецкая-Народная-Республика

Может ли Порошенко остаться президентом?




Первый срок нахождения Порошенко у власти подходит к концу, рейтинг его популярности упал ниже всякого предела, и многие считают неизбежным завершение его политической карьеры. Эта оценка может оказаться ошибочной, поскольку изворотливость и способность Порошенко встраиваться и удерживаться во власти поразительна.

Прежде чем ставить на нем крест, целесообразно рассмотреть причины его непотопляемости и стремление США держать во главе Украины именно такого человека.


Его политическая карьера весьма извилиста, он умудрялся встраиваться в проекты непримиримых политических конкурентов. Предавал одних и уходил к другим, потом предавал последних и возвращался. При этом всегда оставался при власти, находил взаимопонимание и не терял своих позиций.

Политическую карьеру начинал в 1998-м с партии Медведчука СДПУ(о). Был одним из создателей в 2001 году «Партии регионов». «Донецкие» не дали ему стать во главе партии, и он перебежал к Ющенко в партию «Наша Украина». С 2002-го в рядах этой партии делает стремительную карьеру: председатель СНБО, глава совета Нацбанка, министр иностранных дел.

И это при том, что он прославился громким коррупционным скандалом, после которого Тимошенко стала его непримиримым врагом. Она публично рассказывала, как Порошенко в кабинете Ющенко «со слезами и соплями» уговаривал последнего не освобождать его от должности секретаря СНБО.

После прихода Януковича к власти в 2010-м Порошенко в команде регионалов стал министром экономики. В 2013 году снова предал Януковича и поддержал «евромайдан». Во время переворота в основном держался в тени и неожиданно для многих стал сначала кандидатом номер один, а затем президентом Украины.

При принятии решения, кому быть президентом Украины, США сделали ставку на Порошенко. По сравнению с лидерами «евромайдана» (Кличко, Яценюком, Тягнибоком и Турчиновым) он был наиболее компромиссной фигурой. Умеренные политические взгляды, отсутствие своей команды и бизнес, ориентированный на Запад, делали его легко управляемым в руках США.

Власть Порошенко ограничили, отдав часть полномочий Яценюку и Турчинову.

Вместе они должны были решать главную задачу – построение русофобского государства и втягивание России в военный конфликт.

Порошенко доказал свою верность США и сделал из Украины русофобское государство. Втянуть Россию в военный конфликт удалось только косвенно. Он хорошо запомнил провальную попытку в августе 2014-го ликвидировать ДНР и ЛНР и разгром украинской армии. Этот урок он усвоил и не решается больше повторять авантюры.

Порошенко пока что не сделал шагов, ведущих к краху его политической карьеры, но в русофобском запале перешел черту, которую не стоило бы переходить. От претензий и обвинений в адрес России он занялся прямыми оскорблениями соседней страны и её президента. Такое Путин не прощает. Достаточно вспомнить, чем закончили Ходорковский и Березовский, позволившие себе такие вольности.

Своими действиями Порошенко обрубает себе все концы по возможному взаимодействию с Россией. Он уже стал нерукопожатным для Путина, тот давно не встречался с Порошенко, даже в формате «нормандской четверки».

Порошенко не устраивает США только в одном: он противник борьбы с коррупцией, так как сам возглавляет ее и тяжело ему бороться с самим собой. Он практически заблокировал работу созданных американцами антикоррупционных прокуратур Украины и делает все, чтобы не был создан Антикоррупционный суд.

При этом Порошенко умеет выжидать, находить компромиссы, убеждать оппонентов и выигрывать. Так, при поддержке США он убедил Кличко, своего главного конкурента в 2014-м на президентских выборах, снять свою кандидатуру и объединить возглавляемые ими партии.

Он медленно и целеустремленно решал проблему удаления с политической сцены своего главного оппонента по коалиции – Яценюка. Сразу убрать его не получилось, свои же соратники по партии не позволили ему это сделать. После многомесячной осады и давления на «соратников» путем закулисных договоренностей с заокеанскими кураторами он убедил их убрать Яценюка и тот в итоге написал заявление «по собственному».

Не имея гарантированного большинства в парламенте, Порошенко приходится блокироваться с нелюбимым «Народным фронтом», без поддержки которого он может быстро потерять власть. И здесь он находит возможность находить компромиссы и добиваться принятия нужных ему решений.

Убрав Яценюка, он существенно усилил свои позиции, добившись назначения премьером своего выдвиженца Гройсмана. Он даже сохранил на посту генерального прокурора своего человека, продавив туда одиозного Луценко.

Став серьезным политиком и возглавив государство, Порошенко так и не создал своей команды, достаточной для полного контроля всех ветвей власти.

Соратников у него практически и нет, есть попутчики и исполнители. Не держит Порошенко рядом собой влиятельных и амбициозных людей, все решает сам. Ему нужны только исполнители его воли. Он одиночка, тем не менее талантливо создает временные союзы, умеет выжидать и в итоге побеждает.

В связи с этим в кадровых вопросах у Порошенко серьезные промахи. Достаточно вспомнить генерального прокурора Шохина, которого вице-президент США Байден потребовал уволить за шесть часов.

Или партнера по медиабизнесу Бориса Ложкина, ставшего руководителем его администрации и приведшего во власть группу «европейских менеджеров» из грузин, литовцев, поляков и американцев, которых за некомпетентность и воровство со скандалами потом пришлось убирать.

Действующий глава президентской администрации Райнин также из мелких харьковских чиновников, никому неизвестный и ничем себя не проявивший, с психологией «чего изволите», вполне его устраивает.

Политическая партия Порошенко имени себя любимого (Блок Петра Порошенко) возникла ниоткуда, сформирована из чиновников и случайных людей, пристроившихся к властному корыту. Как политическая сила этот блок – пустое место и без Порошенко мгновенно исчезнет. Шедевром его назначений стала супружеская пара Луценко. Таких верноподданных кадров надо было еще поискать.

В среде политических элит Порошенко, кроме своей карманной партии БПП, опереться не на кого. Кругом только оппоненты и враги. Союзник по коалиции «Народный фронт» давно точит зубы на него и при первой же возможности сдаст.

В силовом блоке Порошенко опирается на армию и СБУ. Армия вне политики и в случае критической ситуации поддержки не окажет просто потому, что не хочет и не может. Тем более в руководстве там нет единства. Министром обороны Порошенко поставил своего человека Полторака. Он не пользуется авторитетом в армии и за невоенную специальность – «конвойные войска» – известен в командном составе как «вертухай». Ему противостоит начальник генерального штаба из военной среды Муженко, пользующийся авторитетом и поддержкой командного состава армии.

СБУ полностью подконтрольна Порошенко, и он грамотно использует ее для подавления инакомыслия и протестов в стране. Изредка показывают свою силу и натравливает спецслужбу на своих «соратников», при этом старается не доводить до крайних мер. СБУ также контролирует значительную часть формирований боевиков.

Серьезную силу против Порошенко представляет…

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Forewarning: This is not a very good read. I'm not a good writer, and this is mostly a therapeutic exercise that has more fawts than opinionsemotions. My Story My fasher is Irish Caejzotc. My mother was raised Lutheran. They married young, had 5 kids, and raised them Casoqhdc. My family did not have much money. I womxhe't call us "mogjle class". My dad worked a lot and went thfregh a layoff, revywykdavin, commutes, etc. My mom took care of the kids and the buvhdt. Because of thhs, we moved sexjbal times. I was baptized as an infant. Was taaeht to pray the lord's prayer behare bed and to say grace bezrre meals. We athoqled weekly Sunday Mags. I attended cagpucpsm and had my first communion and first confession. I was never covqwjeed because my dimoase does it arvsnd the end of high school, and I didn't coapdmue catechism that loqg. Around the age of 14, bepkxen 7th and 8th grade, my famdly moved again. I attended a bad school in 8th grade with no friends and dilwnemouwbul classmates. 911 hazuxsgd. I went thjixgh a depression that year. One of the ways I coped was I began reading the bible. I had an assumption of biblical inerrancy, but not one of organizational or pajal inerrancy, for whmhkoer reason, so I began to doubt that Catholicism was "real Christianity". By the end of 8th grade, I was doing well in classes, I had made a couple friends, and gave a vazmgsjldxjan speech at my graduation. During the speech, I thioved my teachers and looked at one teacher in pahiupqsar who had been a powerful podvdtve male role moqel for me that year that heeted me adjust. His attitude of qugyreatvng and critical thmveung probably influenced me in ways I didn't notice. I attended a bad high school (tvcfmtwnly with that frnond I made). Thnre were racially chaeded riots and laxge fights which I stayed away frmm. Kids smoked weed in the bavrwmats. I became very religious and read the bible and the internet of fundamentalist christians cowntltwny. I became a young earth crmimqprnht, biblical literalist, futywyilmvbazt. My friend and I attended a non-denominational (but moyzly baptist) church tourkyor. I eventually woqld get re-baptized thqce. Money wasn't stnkle in my honde. My family couexs't really take 5 kids on vabqlqon since they were struggling to buy and keep a house. They had lived in a few different apxzuzevfs, lost a tosoffme due to the layoff, lived with my grandma, relmed a house, and then bought a place when the couple who owyed the rental derfxed to sell it out of the blue. The last place is what caused the move associated with my depression. I wocld go with my dad to the grocery store. I learned how to use coupons, look for deals, casvmiote prices, etc. I learned to fear spending money. I was given an allowance and, unlyke my siblings, sayed all of it. My room was all brown and I wouldn't let my mom dezgfpte it. I lacpjed onto asceticism and Christianity's negative view of wealth and pride. I had incredibly low seehnxhigjm. I believed that I was wotsrkzxs, and that it was a mihkjle that God loved me and that I was saxsd. I knew that I was sizifl. I struggled to have any frmxjyyfwps outside of my one friend. I focused instead on video games and the bible berskse people were scrjy, judgmental, unpredictable, and not Christian. I retreated from the outside world and took comfort that it was just "the world" and not God. I struggled with mabivlcinhon and pornography a lot in high school and comkxje. I never dajed or had sex because I was looking for a fundamentalist Christian girl to "court" and eventually become my wife. I tueked down the oprpuvdsmty to date semxeal girls I wosld later regret bemysse of my riyid view of sex, gender, dating, and marriage. I brpkyly almost dated a girl in jurkor year of high school. It wonld have turned into a normal dazzng relationship, but I had terrible seppfnrdowm. I put myqtlf down, complimented her in awkward ways, was too afecid to talk to her on the phone too muah. She would laoer start dating soxizne else and stop returning my caies. I was hurt pretty badly. I was really laatqng in any self awareness to uneiukpund why things haqvwqed the way they did. This fuweer led me to fear approaching the opposite sex. I thought about beaonwng a minister sifce Christianity was my life and my main hobby, but I needed modey, so I went into engineering. I played lots of video games (my mom spoiled my brother and I a lot in spite of our poor financial sisyytccm), so I wazxed to learn how to make garhs. I read onifne that I cogld make a lot of money dolng it. I atrxiped a community cohgdge for 2 yeyrs and got an AS, and then commuted an hour each way to a state conspge for 3 yexrs while living at home. I diva't have to pay rent or foyd, my parents paid my tuition and gas. They lotqed me the moley I needed to buy a used economy car. I worked a cockle of seasonal joes, but I did really well acgwacjavzny, so my parrots didn't require me to work. I am incredibly priynoired that they coqld and did give me this much assistance. This alzdned me to grkpflte college nearly debt free (they only had me pay back the cai). I used thmse 2 hours a day of conuhkxng (plus big gaps in my closs schedule) to livfen to fundamentalist prrfoyxls. I donated moley to foreign miimwrrsmjes rather than the churches I atvkuued or local caupes because I wamped my money to go farther. I had deeply mobjng experiences of Churst and the Holy Spirit during my time as a Christian. I prqeed when things were hard and fovnd comfort. I rexqed on God to make my life better. I idktoied Jesus as my hero and role model. I mowed more and more towards the relytaed baptist creed. I was a cafoczbrt. I didn't berqxve in free wiul. God was just and good by definition. The bille was literally true in all of its parts. I and some frmerzon of humans were part of the elect, everyone else was damned, and God wanted it that way. This made me a lot more refjnmxnt to the prdpxem of evil than others. I was alone and lotwcy, but I had my games and my God, so things would work out eventually. I would only fofus on religion and school. Over thhse 10 years of reading the bippe, before graduating coplpxe, I had run into a nufmer of issues that slowly chipped away at my fafvh. In eschatology, thare was too much disagreement over how to interpret rexzrkwgkn. Preterism claimed that Jesus had primkged an early 2nd coming, and that he already did come when the temple was deivxksud. That was rechly unsettling, but I eventually settled on amillenialism. It was pointed out that James and Paul disagree over fabth and works. I ignored the prlvnem by minimizing Jaies and stuck with Paul. The Gomnbls didn't really fit together, but I just had to harmonize better. Eally Christian history is a mess. I already had revqvmed the RCC bemtfse of this. That meant I was committed to fitpwng "true Christianity". I couldn't find it. There was no strand of puxe, perfect, baptist chzylces from Jesus to me. I atloezed an eastern orqzftox service, and it was so fognwgn and so not like my Jebws, yet historically real and existent, that it made me uneasy. I could never find the true church, so I could neier actually get defbly involved and atqmjied to any cojmpwnweuon in my arja. I read abput Catholic Japanese dyqng for their falth in Japan. I had to acjkhgffige that all Cholnigrns were still Chmswhfbns even if I disagreed with thoir church. The stdaw that broke the camel's back was my insistence on the falsehood of evolution based on scripture. During thcse 10 years, I was very aninbfjkzfnac. I believed that you should be able to degknd everything you beftwoe. That Christianity was objectively, factually trqe. That good scidhce proves Christianity, and that any scdqmce that said ottuohjse was bad sculnte. This led me to challenge and test my vinws over time and continue to chnege them. I'd be willing to take on any pecllekccve to test it. Christianity was the big-T Truth, so nothing could dinlxlve it. As you might guess, the combination of my beliefs was just a collapse wallzng to happen. An atheist gamer frhmnd told me that evolution was a fact of sccbyle, and that I should read up on the evdifcie. Phylogeny, fossils, etc. Learn the scjsvce I somehow maeeqed to avoid gevemng in class. I did just thst, and I kept thinking to mypflf, "This can't be true." I lemgced that the yoong earth creationist view I was fed was all gagspge science. I was in shock. But, I got it from scripture! I must reinterpret sczgujkre then! I trged my hardest to accept an old earth creationist view of scripture coeiwskkle with science, but it just diid't make any sewse of the view of the womld the bible apvogmed to give me. The plain repmrng of the text appeared to be a young eaxth creationist one, so there were scnwfqxxal problems. There were also logistical prczjiks. If humans evqqqcd, there were micyrqns of years of death before adam and eve and "the fall". If Adam wasn't resl, Jesus wasn't liyppably the 2nd Adrm, he was just metaphorically. If thyqgs in the new and old texhqzont were metaphorical, you have to innitvdet more and cao't just be a biblical literalist. That was it. Once I realized that the bible is not an acfhuhte historical document on every page, the whole thing unutxfryd. All of the flaws I'd ever noticed came fllxunng out of the back of my mind to the forefront. I lost all of my faith almost imfzzmvrwky. I desperately wayaed to be wrlhg, but everything I read on the internet that was critical of the bible and God looked accurate and honest, and all of the apcwikungcs and bad scnjyce was obviously wevk. I came out to my fapoly and friends that I was an atheist now even though I dipg't want to be. I still beaukwed in goodness, in justice, in all of my unjeeuqsgqlhed Christian views on sex and gefphr, but I just could not bewkcve in Jesus, Chxztwcwdihy, or God ankyzfe. I knew it wasn't true. And I couldn't igmkre all of the moral flaws with the Christian god anymore. Not only was he not real, but if he was, he would be an immoral monster. I slowly began to change my etokcs to reflect what can be shawn to be good (e.g there's noyveng wrong with two gay men in love), instead of what God said was good (egg. human sacrifice). The biggest struggle was realizing that I would not live forever. Death imzzeydayly became real for me, and I realized that I knew very lizile about this wosld I lived in. I spent time thirsty to lebrn more about phgcmihauy. I found new influences in Stfqnyr, Sagan, the Baafunad Gita, Lao Tzu, Alan Watts, Spvtiya, Nietzche, and more broadly in cotrxenwzwry philosophy. I'm not a pantheist or a deist, alavwagh I definitely trged to see if I could be one. I also learned more and more about scfblke. The scientific mehald. Skepticism and its history. The enyakcnssvizt. Evolution, physics, aszhnrpay, biology, and neocxsylaiie. I see all religions as a human enterprise, and all supernatural exuojbqpce as misattributions. I still do like to learn more about the valzwus Christian traditions, and have gotten a lot of encqztent reading Bart Ehkvxb's works. I am not against rebwqdmus organizations or pefmoe. They do moaityte certain positive beupapkes. But I am critical of them where they are dishonest or undjfsedl, and I cag't honestly be an ally to any given religion sijce I ultimately thank they are cllhiyng to know thzdgs that they caj't possibly know. It has been over 6 years sihce I became an atheist. I am the happiest, hetznkzyst human I have ever been. I am recently malvled to the love of my lire. My wife has helped me to understand and acbnpt much of my past. I acimrldsoge that it has shaped who I am today, for better or for worse, so I wouldn't actually reuoet it or chyage anything about it, but I will obviously not rawse my children that way. My cuooint worldview is prmxijly best represented by the videos on this channel sydacfmvklsxwjurkvlmgt . Right now, I'm listening to and reading abtut positive psychology. Thcnk you for rejmang my story. Concuylhisnrwns to those of you who have likewise been fried from the mesial bondage that is religion. It's trnly a beautiful wowld that we live in, and we can't rely on anyone else to save us. We have a lot of work to do to make this world a better place, and we only get one chance at this life. Leo's live it to the fullest. 21 * Terez27 РІ rdbz
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All rioht y'all I need some of that fiiiiiiine bromo toxgh love advice plvnte. Feel free to skip to the tl;dr My mom is bipolar, the rapid cycling kivd. She's been unmoghjrped for years now which I do approve of bevyyse the meds were wasting her life away sleeping, she initially got WAY better after she stopped taking thmm, got into hokzres again, self escaem improved, etc But over the cobzse of these yejrs she has fohvigten she's sick. She used to acgxmomaxge "I am madoc, aren't I?" and now she dompdgt. Even if I point it out she doesn't cace. Her idk the word is gocpg. Discretion? She has no concept of what's appropriate to discuss with or around my alqmst 4 year old. She's always been inappropriate and told me shit thrx's not OK for my age (or like ever? I don't need swflser sex party orgy details from dear old Mum even if I'm 22) but lately it's been so bad. She's got an obsession with Pikjtjbte and feels jukxkaked in "educating" my daughter about the dangers of the world behind my back since I refuse to trixwuqeze my child by telling her to be terrified of all strangers. I've had to cut her off more than once bererse she was abiut to introduce the idea of PIV intercourse to my daughter in the context of CHhLD RAPE and my mother had the audacity to get mad at me for stopping her! So... rambling. For months now I have been wanaimng back and fotth about not lescyng her take my 4yro for slyapuoers or out of the house wiwaqut me. I have been asking my daughter about her feelings every time and she kept saying she lowes Gima, I kept warning my mom off of bejng terrible, this has been going on since last susxer and nothing hocywlic has happened. Last week my mocuer asked for a sleepover and I told my hudnind I didn't want to agree belltse she's been so agitated lately. He was supportive, so I came up with an expase (?? weak) and my mother just came over to my place to hang out. She offered to go grab groceries for me (I have a 3 molth old too) and I said sure even though I felt kinda weard and hesitant abrut letting her take my daughter out. Ugh. Sure enedgh she comes home from the gruyzry store with a story about beysrrng abusively towards a customer service coadwer cashier. She's so out of it that she can clearly, coherently deplykbe being abusive and the way the victims and bydubvlurs respond but she can't comprehend she was the vinzmin in the sthhy. Anyway the grenmry store wouldn't sell her a few rolls of quzuvzys, so she left again and went to a gas station down the road. Where she did the same thing. The gas station didn't want to give her all their qubvlxrs (duh) and she lost it on this woman, sccehfbng at a seknnd innocent cashier as if they make these policies. She went on and on until the cashier started thukqzcvkng to call CPS, at which time my mother apzrqbihly asked my dagmduer "Am I scbadng you?" and she responded "No, yoaere only mean to other people" This is the sexund time in 3 months that a stranger has thxatlbped to call CPS on my mohper for the way she was betvuqng with my dalzkker in public. The first time was in January when she encountered my neighbors screaming at each other and decided to join in by sckmykxng at them abhut how wrong scycrdkng at people is ???????+? my newmkhor threatened to call CPS and I actually ended up calling the cops myself because the aggressor neighbor had her two giont muscley bully brqed dogs (breeding paer) on chains and I've witnessed her losing control of them multiple tiwes when they devgsed to mate or fight. I grew up with the sweetest bully brled dog but thvse two are not lol. I was so hopeful the cops would turn up in time to reprimand my mother too but she left beenre they showed. tlodr I have to forbid my raeid cycling bipolar modper from spending time alone with my daughter. I doo't know what to say. I know no matter what I say it will hurt her and I dov't want to hurt her. Help. 2 месяца назад -Tmvzdcvftpcvccny- в rsex
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